Turnout Records Are Falling as Competition and Tensions Intensify

It was already clear by the morning hours that an extraordinary election day was unfolding: turnout is not only exceptionally high, but appears likely to reach historic levels. Voters showed up at polling stations in large numbers early in the morning, and the momentum had not slowed by 9 a.m. in fact, the figures suggest it continued to strengthen. The rapid pace and broad mobilization indicate that voters perceive the stakes of this election as particularly high, which could ultimately result in record breaking turnout by the end of the day.

A turnout approaching or even surpassing historic highs is already taking shape based on the morning data. Early figures from Sunday’s vote exceeded all expectations: participation was strong from the outset and has remained robust. The 7 a.m. turnout already signaled a powerful start, and the 9 a.m. data further confirm exceptionally high voter activity.

By 9 a.m., 16.89% of eligible voters had cast their ballots, representing more than 1.27 million people. This pace not only surpasses figures from previous elections but also suggests that turnout by the end of the day could reach record levels. It is therefore not out of the question that this election could break the long standing 2002 record of 73.5%.

Turnout by 9 a.m. across counties is as follows:

• Budapest: 15.96%

• Bács-Kiskun County: 18.53%

• Baranya County: 16.72%

• Békés County: 18.61%

• Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén County: 14.13%

• Csongrád-Csanád County: 17.67%

• Fejér County: 17.97%

• Győr-Moson-Sopron County: 17.29%

• Hajdú-Bihar County: 17.73%

• Heves County: 17.11%

• Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok County: 18.35%

• Komárom-Esztergom County: 17.14%

• Nógrád County: 15.09%

• Pest County: 18.01%

• Somogy County: 16.86%

• Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg County: 14.52%

• Tolna County: 18.61%

• Vas County: 15.92%

• Veszprém County: 17.34%

• Zala County: 15.77%

A Two Bloc Race Has Emerged

Commenting on the high morning turnout, Gábor Horn, head of the Republikon Foundation, told Index that record-level participation is almost certain. According to him, current figures not only exceed those of recent elections but show such a significant increase that even the 2002 record could be surpassed.

At the same time, he noted that the dynamics may still change and turnout could slow later in the day. However, his impression is that the strongly motivated early voter activity may favor the Tisza Party, as traditional mobilization efforts such as organized voter transportation typically intensify in the afternoon rather than in the morning.

Horn emphasized that a fundamentally new political situation is emerging in Hungary, with a much sharper, two-pole competition than before. This heightened contest, which many perceive as a direct choice between prime ministerial candidates, has significantly increased public engagement. However, it remains difficult to determine which side will ultimately benefit more.

Regional data also reveal notable differences: in certain counties particularly where the race is tighter higher turnout is evident, reinforcing the perception that many voters view this election as highly competitive.

Assessing the campaign atmosphere and the morning press conferences, Horn said that Péter Magyar appeared more dynamic and confident, while Viktor Orbán’s tone seemed more restrained though he added this may be a subjective impression. Overall, he believes the public mood currently leans toward Tisza, but the final outcome will depend on mobilization, where Fidesz still has significant reserves.

High Turnout Often Benefits Incumbents

Regarding the high turnout figures, Levente Boros Bánk, political analysis director at the Nézőpont Institute, told Index that the strong participation comes as no surprise, as experts had already anticipated record level turnout. Their own estimates also projected figures exceeding those of 2002, and current data appear to confirm this.

He emphasized that, based on historical experience, high turnout often benefits incumbent parties. As an example, he cited the 2018 election, when strong participation helped Fidesz secure victory. According to him, higher turnout tends to bring out voters who are less engaged in day to day politics, which usually favors the party in power.

Boros Bánk also pointed out that Fidesz traditionally performs strongly in the final phase of campaigns and in mobilization efforts. While Tisza Party supporters have already been highly active, the governing party may still have additional reserves to mobilize. This suggests that further increases in turnout could even improve Fidesz’s chances.

Based on these factors, he concluded that record-high turnout is almost certain, likely surpassing the 2002 peak. The Nézőpont Institute had projected turnout at around 75%, alongside a victory for the governing party. However, he added that data arriving later in the day will mainly serve to confirm existing trends rather than fundamentally alter conclusions.