Is an Era Coming to an End in Hungary? What Do the Polls Indicate?

Hungary’s most accurate pollster over the past decades, Medián, now projects a solid two thirds majority for Tisza, while other independent institutes show a narrower but still clear Tisza lead. Pollsters linked to the governing parties, however, indicate a slight Fidesz advantage.

During the extremely intense and noisy campaign, marked by scandals, wiretapping cases, and government leaks, independent pollsters say these developments have not favored Fidesz though the proportion of “hidden” voters who avoid surveys remains difficult to measure.

In the final week of the campaign, four independent polling institutes released fresh data. All of them show that Tisza has been able to expand its lead over the governing parties, while a majority of voters remain dissatisfied with the state of the country and increasingly expect a change in government.

Among pro government institutes, Nézőpont most recently published figures, estimating a narrow Fidesz majority.

Medián Projects a Tisza Supermajority

Medián, widely regarded as the most accurate Hungarian pollster over the long term, shocked opposition supporters four years ago by predicting a near two thirds victory for Fidesz just days before the election. Although it missed by a few seats, Fidesz ultimately won decisively.

Based on its five most recent representative surveys, Medián now estimates that Tisza could win 138–143 seats, projecting a strong two thirds majority. Politically, this would suggest a tipping point in society: Tisza could replace Fidesz and gain the power to amend or rewrite cardinal laws.

According to Medián, Fidesz would suffer a major defeat, winning only 49–55 seats due to the electoral system’s tendency to over reward the winner, and securing very few individual constituencies.

Medián’s data suggest that Mi Hazánk would enter parliament with 5–6 seats, while the Democratic Coalition would fail to do so, and the Two Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) would also remain without representation.

The institute emphasized that these figures are estimates, and that results can only be responsibly defined within a range.

The projection is based on five representative telephone surveys conducted in late February and March, using three different call centers and a total sample of 5,000 respondents.

According to the data, Fidesz has lost about a quarter of its 2022 voter base, with further erosion since the European Parliament elections. Voting preferences continue to be primarily shaped by age, followed by education, while the impact of place of residence has diminished.

Tisza remains strongest among younger voters and continues to gain support month by month. Around three-quarters of voters under 30 would support Tisza, and 63% of those aged 30–40 as well. Fidesz support in these groups stands at just 10% and 17%, respectively. Only among pensioners does Fidesz maintain an advantage: nearly half of those over 64 support the governing party, compared to 29% for Tisza.

Educational differences are also significant: a majority of university graduates and those with secondary education support Tisza, while only a quarter to a fifth back Fidesz. Among vocational school graduates, Fidesz holds a slight lead, while among those with only primary education, its advantage is substantial (49% vs. 29%).

Differences by settlement type have narrowed. Although Tisza remains stronger in larger cities and Fidesz in smaller communities, recent surveys show Tisza leading even in villages (41% to 35%). Regional differences have also diminished.

The 2024 European Parliament election was Tisza’s first major test, where it secured 30% of the vote. Of those voters, 95% still support the party, joined by 47% of voters who previously supported other parties and 59% of those who abstained.

Fidesz has been less successful in retaining its base: around 80% of its 2024 voters would support it again, 6% have switched to Tisza, and 13% have become uncertain or would vote for smaller parties.

Medián’s director, Endre Hann, noted that polling itself has become part of the political struggle, and results should be treated as estimates.

He added that among committed voters, Tisza’s lead is around 20–21 percentage points, driven less by Fidesz losses and more by voters shifting from smaller opposition parties.

aHang and 21 Research Center: Growing Demand for Change

A joint analysis by aHang and the 21 Research Center shows that from the capital to rural areas, voters favor a change of government, and the government’s war-focused campaign messaging has not been effective.

According to the survey, 51% of the population would prefer a change in government, while 30% support the current one.

The demand for change appears across all demographic groups. Perceptions also reflect this trend: 40% believe Tisza will win the election, compared to 32% for Fidesz.

When asked who should form the next government, 45% chose Tisza, 30% Fidesz, while 24% were undecided.

The government’s performance is viewed negatively overall: 51% are dissatisfied, while only 26% are satisfied.

Despite intensified government messaging about war, 55% of respondents do not believe Hungary would enter a war if Tisza wins, while 22% do, and 23% are uncertain.

A majority of voters (43%) believe their lives would improve with a change of government, while only 22% think it would worsen.

Voter turnout intentions are strong: 65% say voting is very important to them. Tisza voters appear slightly more committed (95% certain to vote for the party) compared to Fidesz voters (90%).

Compass Institute: Tisza Leads Confidently

According to the compass Institute, Tisza leads comfortably, and a majority of voters now expect its victory.

Among the total population, 41% support Tisza and 34% Fidesz. Among decided voters, the gap widens to 50% vs. 41%, and among committed voters, to 51% vs. 40%.

At the same time, 18% remain undecided or unwilling to disclose their preference.

Notably, public expectations have shifted: while earlier most expected a Fidesz victory, now slightly more believe Tisza will win (43% vs. 40%).

IDEA Institute: 50–37 Among Committed Voters

According to IDEA, Tisza maintains a strong lead even in the final week of the campaign. Among committed voters, it would receive 50% of the vote, compared to 37% for Fidesz.

Both parties have gained support in recent months, while the proportion of undecided voters has declined from 27% to 21% since January.

 Focus on Utility Prices

The pro-government Nézőpont Institute did not measure party preference in its latest poll, instead focusing on utility price cuts. A majority of respondents believe these would remain under a Fidesz government but would be abolished under Tisza.

Orbán Viktor: Confident but Cautious

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán maintains that Fidesz is leading in internal polling and expects victory, while acknowledging the difficulty of measurement in a highly charged political environment.

Government minister Gergely Gulyás stated that achieving a two-thirds majority would be “in the realm of miracles,” suggesting that even a simple majority would be a significant result.

Conclusion

Polls suggest a clear shift in voter sentiment and a real possibility of political change in Hungary. However, uncertainties remain particularly due to undecided voters and the dynamics of the electoral system leaving the final outcome open.